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4th International Workshop on Uncertainty in Atmospheric Emissions_7-9 October 2015_Kraków_Poland

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The assessment of greenhouse gases and air pollutants (indirect GHGs) emitted to and removed from the atmosphere is high on the political and scientific agendas. Building on the UN climate process, the international community strives to address the long-term challenge of climate change collectively and comprehensively, and to take concrete and timely action that proves sustainable and robust in the future. Under the umbrella of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, mainly developed country parties to the Convention have, since the mid-1990s, published annual or periodic inventories of emissions and removals, and continued to do so after the Kyoto Protocol to the Convention ceased in 2012. Policymakers use these inventories to develop strategies and policies for emission reductions and to track the progress of those strategies and policies. Where formal commitments to limit emissions exist, regulatory agencies and corporations rely on emission inventories to establish compliance records.

However, as increasing international concern and cooperation aim at policy-oriented solutions to the climate change problem, a number of issues circulating around uncertainty have come to the fore, which were undervalued or left unmentioned at the time of the Kyoto Protocol but require adequate recognition under a workable and legislated successor agreement. Accounting and verification of emissions in space and time, compliance with emission reduction commitments, risk of exceeding future temperature targets, evaluating effects of mitigation versus adaptation versus intensity of induced impacts at home and elsewhere, and accounting of traded emission permits are to name but a few.

The 4th International Workshop on Uncertainty in Atmospheric Emissions is jointly organized by the Systems Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences, the Austrian-based International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, and the Lviv Polytechnic National University. The 4th Uncertainty Workshop follows up and expands on the scope of the earlier Uncertainty Workshops - the 1st Workshop in 2004 in Warsaw, Poland; the 2nd Workshop in 2007 in Laxenburg, Austria; and the 3rd Workshop in 2010 in Lviv, Ukraine.

 

Table of contents:

 

FORESTRY

 

Full verified carbon account of forest ecosystems as a fuzzy system: An attempt to assess uncertainty, Anatoly SHVIDENKO, Dmitry SCHEPASCHENKO, Florian KRAXNER, Steffen FRITZ

Forest map and its uncertainty as an important input for carbon sink estimation for Poland and Ukraine, Myroslava LESIV, Anatoly SHVIDENKO, Dmitry SCHEPASCHENKO, Linda SEE, Steffen FRITZ

 

AGRICULTURE

 

Spatial GHG inventory in the Agriculture sector and uncertainty analysis: A case study for Poland, Nadiia CHARKOVSKA, Rostyslav BUN, Olha DANYLO, Joanna HORABIK-PYZEL, Matthias JONAS

Conditionally autoregressive model for spatial disaggregation of activity data in GHG inventory: Application for agriculture sector in Poland, Joanna HORABIK-PYZEL, Nadiia CHARKOVSKA, Olha DANYLO, Zbigniew NAHORSKI, Rostyslav BUN

Modeling uncertainty in ammonia emissions from agriculture: Regional upscaling by Monte Carlo analysis, Bettina SCHÄPPI, Jurg HELDSTAB, Thomas KUPPER

 

ENERGY AND INDUSTRY

 

High resolution spatial inventory of GHG emissions from stationary and mobile sources in Poland: summarized results and uncertainty analysis, Rostyslav BUN, Zbigniew NAHORSKI, Joanna HORABIK-PYZEL, Olha DANYLO, Nadiia CHARKOVSKA, Petro TOPYLKO, Mariia HALUSHCHAK, Myroslava LESIV, Oleksandr STRIAMETS

Spatial Greenhouse Gas (GHG) inventory and uncertainty analysis: A case study for electricity generation in Poland and Ukraine, Petro TOPYLKO, Mariia HALUSHCHAK, Rostyslav BUN, Tomohiro ODA, Myroslava LESIV, Olha DANYLO

Uncertainty analysis of GHG spatial inventory from the industrial activity: A case study for Poland, Nadiia CHARKOVSKA, Mariia HALUSHCHAK, Rostyslav BUN, Matthias JONAS

Spatial inventory of GHG emissions from fossil fuels extraction and processing: An uncertainty analysis, Mariia HALUSHCHAK, Rostyslew BUN, Matthias JONAS, Petro TOPYLKO

Carbon emission inventory calculation and analysis based on coal lifecycle, Xiangyang XU, Junlian GAO

 

UNCERTAINTY, LEARNING, AND POTENTIAL POLICY IMPACTS

 

A metric for the prognostic outreach of scenarios: Learning from the past to establish a standard in applied systems analysis,Matthias JONAS, Elena ROVENSKAYA, Piotr ŻEBROWSKI

Assessing the improvement of greenhouse gases inventories: can we capture diagnostic learning?, Piotr ŻEBROWSKI, Matthias JONAS, Elena ROVENSKAYA

A method for estimating time evolution of precision and accuracy of greenhouse gases inventories from revised reports, Jolanta JARNICKA, Zbigniew NAHORSKI

How uncertainty of air emission inventories impacts policy decisions at sub-national level. A Shift-Share Analysis undertaken in Piedmont (Italy), i>Alessandra LA NOTTE, Stefania TONIN, Silvio NOCERA

 

GLOBAL IMPACTS OF GHG EMISSIONS

 

Performance of global black carbon emission inventories in the Arctic,< i>Ville-Veikko PAUNU, Kaarle KUPIAINEN

Global anthropogenic particle number emissions and their size distributions, Pauli PAASONEN, Kaarle KUPIAINEN, Zbigniew KLIMONT, Antoon VISSCHEDIJK, Hugo Denier VAN DER GON, Markus AMANN

 

GRIDDED EMISSIONS ESTIMATES

 

Uncertainty in gridded CO2 emissions estimates, Susannah HOGUE, Eric MARLAND, Robert J. ANDRES, Gregg MARLAND, Charles ROBISON, Dawn WOODARD

Uncertainty associated with fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) gridded emission datasets, Tomohiro ODA, Lesley OTT, Petro TOPYLKO, Mariia HALUSHCHAK, Rostyslav BUN, Myroslava LESIV, Olha DANYLO, Joanna HORABIK-PYZEL

Remapping gridded data using Articifial Intelligence: real world challenges, Jorg VERSTRAETE

Integration of multi-source information in disaggregation of spatial emission data, Joanna HORABIK-PYZEL, Zbigniew NAHORSKI

 

PRICING UNCERTAINTY AND TRADING

 

Sensitivity of marginal abatement cost curves to variation of G4M parameters, Mykola GUSTI, Nikolay KHABAROV, Nicklas FORSELL

Multi-agent auction simulation of the GHG international emission permit trading, Piotr PAŁKA, Jarosław STAŃCZAK, Weronika RADZISZEWSKA, Zbigniew NAHORSKI

 

URBAN EMISSIONS

 

Urban metabolism: atmospheric loads and fluxes of major greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4) in Krakow, southern Poland, Mirosław ZIMNOCH, Jarosław NECKI, Jarosław CHMURA, Alina JASEK, Michal GAŁKOWSKI, Tadeusz KUC, Zbigniew GORCZYCA, Jakub BARTYZEL, Kazimierz ROZANSKI

Inventories of domestic heating sources and their emissions in urban areas - methods, results and uncertainty, Marek ROSICKI, Magdalena ZAŁUPKA

Accounting uncertainty for spatial modeling of greenhouse gas emissions in the residential sector: fuel combustion and heat production, Olha DANYLO, Rostyslav BUN, Linda SEE, Petro TOPYLKO, Xiangyang XU, Nadiia CHARKOVSKA, Przemysław TYMKÓW

On the uncertainty in modeling urban air quality under imprecise emission data, Piotr HOLNICKI, Zbigniew NAHORSKI

On the possibility of selenium air emission inventory from small domestic sources, Damian ZASINA, Jarosław ZAWADZKI

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